America Supports Bush -- for now

By WILL LESTER
The Associated Press
Dec. 29, 2000

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans tend to rally behind a new president once the race is decided, and national surveys indicate that has happened with President-elect Bush, accepted as the legitimate winner by just over two-thirds of Americans. Findings in recent weeks suggest, however, another basic obstacle for incoming presidents: Public support doesn't necessarily translate into public confidence.

"He's obviously established himself on a personal level, more than on a professional level," said Peter Hart, who polls for NBC and the Wall Street Journal. "They like him personally, and he has the good will of the nation, wanting things to move forward. I think the question goes right back to where it was during the campaign, and that is competence."

Surveys taken by Hart and others suggest plenty of people have not yet developed confidence in Bush's abilities on matters ranging from the economy to international affairs. Not surprisingly, the public is about evenly divided on these as on so many questions in this very unusual political year. Bush and Vice President Al Gore ended the election in a virtual tie that took more than a month to unravel.

"I didn't like what they did down in Florida and don't think it was fair, but I support Bush now," said Myrtice Crook, a Gore voter and 64-year-old rural mail carrier from Reynolds, Ga., in the south-central part of the state. "I don't have a lot of confidence in any of our government officials" -- a sentiment she says extends to Bush -- "but I guess he'll be OK."

Public doubt about incoming presidents, especially on matters such as international affairs, aren't unusual on Washington newcomers such as Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton.

Public support for Bush is clearly bipartisan, but public confidence takes on a more partisan edge. Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus, found that distinction when he tracked differences between support and confidence among various groups in a survey in his state taken right after the race was finally settled.

"All groups, including African-Americans, support the new president," Sarpolus said. "But there is a difference between supporting him and having confidence in him."

In a post-decision poll in Michigan, a battleground state narrowly claimed by Gore, Bush was:

* supported by four of five whites, but fewer than two-thirds had confidence in him. About two-thirds of blacks supported him, but a third had confidence in him.

* supported by four of five union voters, while just over half said they had confidence in him.

* supported by six of 10 Democrats, while only three in 10 said they had confidence in him.

* supported by four of five independents, while just over half had confidence in him.

National polls have reflected some doubts about Bush's performance, but haven't examined the gulf between support and confidence so specifically.

Robert Teeter, a Republican pollster who teams with Democrat Hart to produce their media poll, said he thinks bitterness left by the monthlong election stalemate will fade steadily. "My guess is it's already faded a lot," he said. "Nobody wants to hear about it."

While Bush has said repeatedly he won't obsess over polls, Teeter noted the media will watch the polls very closely in the coming months after the even split on Election Day. Teeter said he thinks the public will "give Bush the benefit of the doubt," and as they see him in action "he will be very popular. They'll find him very candid and honest."

People who voted for Bush tend to agree.
"I think this man will do a good job," said Bob Adams, a 44-year-old building engineer from Kansas City, Mo. "He wants to give the presidency a fresh start, one that's not full of dark secrets." Adams said Bush's lack of experience at the national level should not be a problem. "Clinton had the same situation. He was a governor," Adams said. "At least Bush is straightforward."

While the public appears to want Bush to get off to a good start, there are clearly threats to that success in the early going. "Clearly, they like him on the character issues, but if the economy suffers, that will get laid at his doorstep," said Lee Miringoff, a New York pollster who conducts the Marist Poll. "We've dug out of the deficit and been in a period of prolonged economic growth. If the economy goes south, that will be a real test right at the starting gun."


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