"OPEC Ability to Offset Lost Iraqi Oil Doubted: Watchdog Implies Reserve May Be Tapped in a War; Ministers Fear a Price Drop," [3.13.03, A2].
"The International Energy Agency said OPEC alone won't be able to make up for lost Iraqi oil exports in the event of a war. The statement suggests that the agency, the oil-supply watchdog for the industrialized world, may need to tap into emergency oil reserves to maintain adequate supplies of crude and keep prices from skyrocketing. The IEA said the global oil-supply system is 'running on empty.' The warning countered a pledge made Tuesday by Ali Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, that 'there will be no shortage of oil' in the event of a war. Yet the IEA data showed that Saudi capacity to offset losses was less than many had thought [see historical data]."

"Shares in Tokyo, Seoul Fall on Missile Testing," [3.11.03, A12].
"North Korea's test-firing of a missile into the Sea of Japan sent Tokyo and Seoul stocks lower yesterday. Japan, already burdened by a raft of domestic economic problems, is now showing its vulnerability to possible war in Iraq and nuclear tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.3% yesterday to 8042.26, its lowest close since March 1983 [see chart]."

"Over a Barrel: Oil Markets Have Less Margin Of Error Than in Last Iraq War: Producers, Shippers and Users Are All Facing New Strains; Spare Capacity Is Minimal," [3.11.03, A1].
"In the months leading up to the Gulf War, the last time oil prices got as high as now, a number of players took elaborate steps to bring oil markets back to normal. It could be harder this time... Many analysts are predicting prices will again fall once shooting starts. But this time, conditions are far different. The whole supply chain -- producers, shippers and consumers -- is under unprecendented strain [see chart]."

"Venezuelan Prices Leap Following Money Curbs," [3.3.03, A15].
"Venezuelan consumer prices soared 5.5% in February, their highest level in seven years, the central bank reported, as many imported goods became scarce after leftish President Hugo Chavez introduced foreign-exchange controls."

"Italy's 2002 Growth Was Lowest in a Decade," [3.3.03, A15].
"Italy's economy barely expanded in the fourth quarter, leaving 2002 growth at its lowest level in nearly a decade, preliminary data from statistics bureau Istat showed Friday... Italy's numbers complete a bleak picture for the 12-nation euro zone after data earlier last week showed flat fourth-quarter growth in Germany and just 0.2 growth in France for the same period."

"Germany, Spain Release Gloomy GDP Numbers," [2.27.03, A11].
"Gross domestic product figures from Germany and Spain showed sluggish growth in the fourth quarter, reinforcing prospects for a reduction in euro-zone interest rates. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, GDP growth was stagnant in the fourth quarter... GDP grew 0.5% from a year earlier."

"Spain's economy grew at its lowest annual rate in nine years in 2002, at 2%... Meanwhile, Britain's economy grew at its slowest pace in a decade last year."

"North Korea's Slide Resumes: Regugees Say Conditions, After a Brief Upturn, Are Severe Again," [2.27.03, A11].
"On an icy evening in early February, a 36-year-old widow sat in a meeting hall in her hometown in North Korea. She had been to hundreds of indoctrination sessions, but this one was different, she says. In a monotone, a local communist-party official read the sternest warning yet to anyone thinking of crossing the border into China, only a few miles away, in search of food. 'Don't even think about it,' the widow recalls the official telling them. 'It's better to die here.'"

"The widow and other refugees say life in North Korea, after a brief pickup from 1999 to 2002, is getting grimmer... 'A lot of families are starving,' says a 26-year-old woman who crossed the border in December. 'I spent six hours a day finding and cutting wood for heat. When I crossed, the water was freezing and I thought I might drown. But better to die that way than starve in North Korea...'"

"'I left because I couldn't even afford a handful of corn meal,' says the widow. 'Everyone I know inside North Korea is worried that this year will be worse than 1996, when we had to eat grass soup.'"

"The Andrean Arc of Instability: Increasingly Powerful, the Poor Disrupt Traditional Governance," [2.24.03, A13].
"As the U.S. prepares for war in Iraq and confronts nuclear brinksmanship in North Korea, much closer to home the five nations of Andean South America are quickly degenerating into an arc of political and economic instability. Politicians in Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela, as well as elsewhere in South America, are struggling to deal with emerging trends that have changed the historical rules of their game [see chart]."

"The rural poor and indigenous peoples of the Andes, and growing legions of urban shantytown dwellers, are flexing fresh electoral power. They are questioning not only the old oligarchies but also free-market policies, in the biggest challenge yet to a wave of neoliberal reforms that swept the continent in the early 1990s. At the same time, governments are suffering from a world-wide economic slump, stiff foreign debts and tight budgets that have reduced their ability to provide basic services and subsides for fuel and food."

"The worst-case scenario? A combination of political violence, high unemployment and a drop in crucial export revenues could set off a chain reaction of failed governments from the tropical shores of the Caribbean Sea to the deserts of the Pacific Coast and the frigid highland plateau."

"The signs of trouble are everywhere, says Mr. Marcella of the Army War College. 'I'd like to see President Bush make good on his promise of making Latin America a first priority,' he adds, 'but that's not going to happen.' "

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