Turkey Facts: Opposition to Bush's War Proposal

"Erdogan Victory In Turkey Favors American Plans: Election Brings Supporter Of U.S. Troop Deployment To Formal Leadership Role," [3.10.03, A16].
"Turkey inched closer to a fresh vote on allowing some 60,000 U.S. troops into its territory for a possible war against Iraq when one of the deployment's strongest supporters won a crucial weekend by-election that paves the way to power. The victory of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party and one of the architechs of the troop agreement, allows him to assume the post of prime minister, succeeding incumbent Abdullah Gul, a close associate. But Mr. Erdogan is only expected to ask parliament to vote again on allowing a deployment after he has formed a new government, a process that may take several days."

"Turkey's Decision on Aid Is Sinking In: If U.S. Deal Isn't Reached, Chance of Default on Debt Will Increase, Experts Say," [3.6.03, A11].
"Fearful of letting a huge U.S. economic aid package slip through its fingers, Turkey appears to be moving toward a second vote on allowing more than 60,000 U.S. troops onto its territory, despite widespread popular opposition to war. The chances of the government making a second attempt increased significantly yesterday, when the army geve its full backing to the U.S. troop deployment, saying military cooperation with America would benefit Turkey."

"With no U.S. bilateral aid, 'the risk that Turkey will have to do debt restructing some time over the next year or so... would escalate dramatically,' said Michael Mussa, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. It's a quandary for the governing Justice and Developing Party or AKP, which swept to power in elections last November pledging relief to the victims of Turkey's worst recession since 1945 [see charts]."

The AKP, with its roots in the Islamist movement, has been pulled in two directions: it is reluctant to sour relations with the U.S., and is desperate for the lifeline Washington's aid provides, yet it is aware of fierce opposition to U.S. military plans for Iraq among its voters. More than 90% of Turks are against any war."

"The Turkish economy, meanwhile continues to struggle, laboring under a domestic debt burden of more than $90 billion. Inflation has meant high interest rates, putting debt management on a knife-edge. Any external shocks, such as war in Iraq, may provoke a selloff of the Turkish lira and drive rates even higher."

"Turkey Tries to Calm Investors Following Iraq Vote," [3.4.03, A13].
"Prime Minister Abdullah Gul rushed to steady Turkey's financial markets stunned by the parliament's weekend decision to block the deployment of U.S. troops to Turkey, but he wouldn't say whether he would ask lawmakers to vote on the proposal a second time. Mr. Gul said the cabinet had finished work on a long-overdue austerity budget for 2003 that fulfilled key targets set by the International Monetary Fund and should help unlock a $1.6 billion IMF loan that has been held up for four months."

"But that wasn't enough to reassure investors, who had been counting on a multi-billion-dollar package of economic aid promised by the U.S. in return for permission to deploy 62,000 combat troops to Turkey. 'A full recovery will only come if the troop proposal passes,' said Can Yazgan, an analyst at Ata Invest in Istanbul."

"Analysts said they had expected even more turmoil. 'Some investors are clearly holding out hope that the government will submit the troop-deployment motion to parliament a second time,' said Tolga Erdiz, an analyst at Lehman Brothers. Parliament's rejection of the government-sponsored motion -- by three votes -- was a shocking defeat for Mr. Gul and Tayyup Erdogan, leader of the governing Justice and Development Party, known as the AKP, which has 362 seats in the 550-seat parliament. It also stunned U.S. officials and threw Pentagon plans for a second front against Iraq into disarray."

"Commentators said it was unlikely the government would risk a second attempt this week, with Mr. Erdogan facing a key election next Sunday that could pave the way for his returning to parliament and assuming the post of prime minister. Mr. Erdogan could become utterly discredited if the motion fails a second time, observers say."

"Turkish Kurds Fear Crackdown: Group Says Democratic Gains Are Vulernable as War in Iraq Nears," [3.3.03, A15].
"Sezgin Tanrikulu, a prominent Kurdish human-rights lawyer, is busier than he has been in months. Since January, he has assigned lawyers for two hundred students in the Kiyarbakir region detained by police during protests against possible war in Iraq. The arrests, coming after reduced tensions in recent years, could be omens of a crackdown, he says [see illustration]."

"'There's a kind of war hysteria here,' says Mr. Tanrikulu, the head of the bar association in this big Kurdish city in southeastern Turkey. 'The atmosphere's increasingly negative.'"

"Many of Turkey's 12 million Kurds are troubled by the advance toward war in Iraq, fearing the upheaval could cause the Turkish government to pull back the modest democratic gains they have seen in the past two years. 'Whenever there's a war, the victims are the same,' says Reyhan Yalcindag, vice president of Turkey's Human Rights Association. 'It's always the Kurds.'"

"Local politicians, lawyers and human-rights campaigners say Turkey is using the planned U.S. military strike as a pretext to revert to the old, heavy-handed way of dealing with the country's Kurdish minority. Reports in Turkish media, meanwhile, say the government is considering reimposing a state of emergency on Diyarbakir and five other southeastern cities in the event of war. The special regime, which curtails freedom of movement and association, among other civil rights, has been in force for 15 years and was only lifted three months ago."

"Turkey has good reason to feel jumpy. Last month saw armed skirmishes between Turkish security forces and guerrillas of the PKK, the Kurdistand Workers' Party. The fighting was the worst since 1999, when the PKK renounced its 15-year military struggle for an independent Kurdish state following the capture of the rebels' leader, Abdullah Ocalan. More than 30,000 people were killed during the conflict."

"Turkey's last experience of a U.S.-led war against Iraq, in the 1991 Gulf War, also goes some way to explain why it is now cracking down on suggestions of rebel activity. 'Everyone in Turkey feels betrayed by what happened last time,' says Umit Ozdag, head of ASAM, an Ankara think-tank. 'There was a political vacuum in Northern Iraq and the PKK used it to establish a base there to launch guerrilla raids into Turkey.'"

"Any Turkish-Kurd violence could trigger civil unrest in Turkey itself, some in Diyarbakir warn. 'If Turkey attacks, Kurds here won't just sit on their hands and watch,' says Mefahir Altindag, a local leader of Dehap, the main Kurdish party.'"

"Anger already lies deep in Diyarbakir, stirred by the experience of a brutal, decades-long Turkish campaign to expunge Kurdish identity. Terrified that the Kurds would foment rebellion and secede from Turkey -- much other territory was lost during the breakup of the Ottoman Empire -- Ankara, from the foundation of the Turkish republic in 1923, crushed Kurdish demands for autonomy and sought to assimilate the group into Turkish culture. Turkey referred to the Kurds as 'mountain Turks' and banned their language, folk songs and place names."

"...But in recent months, tensions have eased. Eager to qualify for membership in the European Union, Turkey cleaned up its human-rights record, abolishing the death penalty and taking steps to repeal a ban on Kurdish-language broadcasting and education. The lifting of emergency rule meant detainees were allowed quicker access to lawyers, once-banned newspapers appeared on the streets, torture in police custody became less common and the harassment of Kurdish political parties stoped. But recently the mood has soured again..."

"Turks' 'No' to Troops Shows Cost to U.S. Allies: Pro-American Governments in Mideast Bear Burden That Grows as War Looms," [3.3.03, A3].
"A political crisis in Turkey, brought on by Parliament's refusal to allow thousands of U.S. troops to use Turkish military bases, illustrates the growing cost to pro-American governments in the Middle East region. Despite backing by Turkey's ruling party, its Parliament delivered a dramatic setback Saturday to Washington's plans for a potential war with Iraq by narrowly rejecting a motion to allow as many as 62,000 American combat troops to be based in Turkey in exchange for a multibillion-dollar package of loans and grants."

"The plan's defeat was also a blow for Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, which is walking a tightrope between widespread domestic opposition to a potential war and the country's traditionally close relationship with the U.S. Though the measure could be resubmitted to Parliament, it isn't clear whether the ruling party could survive a second rejection."

"As events unfolded in Ankara, the leader of another U.S. ally, Saudi Arabia, was given a tongue-lashing at the Arab League summit Saturday in Egypt's Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi said Saudi Arabia had formed 'an alliance with the devil' when it asked the U.S. to protect it from Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War. "

"The events in Turkey and Egypt show the unprecedented strain being placed on American allies in the Middle East region as the Bush administration demands support for a war that is fiercely opposed by many politicians and their populations. Though it would provide political cover, the likelihood of a Security Council resolution backing war appeared less likely during the weekend, as Iraq began destroying banned Al Samoud missiles under the supervision of U.N. inspectors."

"...Ankara also fears that allowing in U.S. troops would cause widespread popular protest and split the AKP. Some AKP deputies with Islamic leanings strongly oppose the idea of waging war against another Muslim country. In a rare display of mass dissent, as many as 100,000 demonstrators chanting 'No to war' gathered outside the Turkish Parliament in Ankara as Saturday's vote took place."

"Events Complicate Northern Front in Iraq: Islamic Group Stirs Trouble And Turkey Plans Actions To Deter Kurkish Autonomy," [2.24.03, A13].
"The complicated situation in Northern Iraq -- a region crucial to U.S. plans for attacking Iraq and deposing Saddam Hussein -- is shifting in ways that could make it harder to fight a war and secure peace afterward [see chart]."

"At first, war planners in Washington thought the biggest challenge in the region would be uniting two key Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party..."

"A series of events unfolding in recent weeks, however, have complicated the opening of a northern front against Iraq. The first is the increasing activity of Ansar al-Islam, a Taliban-like Islamic group that opposes the moderate, secular Islam of northern Iraq's Kurkish parties."

"Turkey has introduced another complication, by pressing the U.S. for permission to allow tens of thousands of its troops to enter Northern Iraq, a move that has unnerved the Kurds and many encourage neighbors Iran and Syria to use their influence in Northern Iraq... Turkey is seeking the right to supervise the postwar disarming of Iraqi Kurds... Turkey is set against the Iraqi Kurdish goal of autonomy, and wants its troops present in Northern Iraq to crush any moves toward an independent Kurdistan... Kurds say a Turkish presence would be far worse than a U.S. occupation of Iraq."

"In response to Turkey's military presence, Iran is likely to exercise its influence through an exiled Iraqi group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which is based in Tehran and closely allied with Iran's Shiite rulers... There have been reports in the Western media that SCIRI has just sent 5,000 of its troops into the north."