"Emergency Plan: A Kurdish Doctor Tries to Prepare, Not Scare, Locals: U.N. Sanctions Don't Allow Iraqis to Get Gas Masks, So They Must Improvise: Beware a Smell of Chocolate," [3.13.03, A1].
"The woman living across the street from Dr. Abdul Saeed here in northern Iraq wakes every day before dawn to pray and prepare breakfast for her husband and eight children. Then she peers through her lace kitchen curtains at Dr. Saeed's home, seeking reassurance: the sight of his car in the garage, his childen playing, his wife on the balcony -- any sign that he and his family are still present. Dr. Saeed is director of the Department of Public Health for Dohuk providence, which is under the control of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. He is responsible for preparing the 817,000 residents of this mostly rural area for war and mayhem, including the possibility of a chemical-weaspons attack by Saddam Hussein's military."

"Dohuk sits so close to hostile Iraqi territory that Mr. Husseins border guards are visible in the distance. It is also the nearest city to the Turkish border, and thus would almost certainly be part of the battleground if the U.S. attacks Iraq [see map]."

"The Kurds have long fought for independence in northern Iraq, making them enemies with the Iraqi government and with Turkey, which fears a similar uprising of its own Kurdish population. During the Persian Gulf War, hundreds of thousands of Kurds fled to the mountainous border with Turkey, where hundreds a day starved, froze and died from communicable diseases. Some of those who descended the slopes on the Turkish side were shot at by the Turkish military."

"Fat Wallet, Free Agent: Russia Goes Its Own Way: Iraq Stance Shaped by Throve Of Hard Currency, Memory Of Bad Old Days as Beggar," [3.10.03, A3].
"Russia's resistance to a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq is a sign that the diplomacy of dependency may have run its course. After recovering from the post-Soviet economic deterioration of hte 1990s, Moscow is awash in cash and not so easily plied by the West's economic handouts [see illustrations]."

"Russia derives one-third of its federal revenue from oil and gas, and if the U.S. invades Iraq, and ultimately increases oil production dramatically, it could prove a shock to the federal budget. 'In the past, Russia has tried to convince the world of its greatness by building rockets that showed off its might,' said Roland Nash, head of research at Renaissance Capital investment bank of Moscow. 'Putin has concentrated on the economy, with essentially the same aim in mind.'"

"U.S. Prepares for Rebuilding of Iraq: Initial Plan Could Spend As Much As $900 Million On Repairs After a War," [3.10.03, A3].
"The Bush administration is preparing to award a contract valued at as much as $900 million to begin rebuilding a postwar Iraq, in what would be the largest government reconstruction effort since America helped to rebuld Germany and Japan after World War II... The maximum value of just the initial contract would be more than double what the U.S. is spending in ficsal years 2002-04 to rebuild Afghanistan. And the proposed work schedule is ambitious, especially compared with the sluggish pace of large-scale reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, a bone of contention between the U.S. and hte fledgling government there."

"Some observers have raised concerns about how the plan ultimately would be funded. 'One must convince the world that this is not profiteering while also acknowledging the need to get the work done quickly,' said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here. 'But what bothers people is that some of these contracts may not be real aid, but may obligate the Iraqis to pay for the work. There is also a concern that work may be given only to U.S. and British companies.'"

"Only a small number of companies, all of them American, were invited to compete for the contract under a provision of U.S. government-procurement law that permits expeditied bidding in what one official termed 'urgent circumstances.' They are Bechtel Group Inc. of San Francisco; Fluor Corp. of Aliso Viejo, Calif.' Houston-based Halliburton Co.'s Kellogg Borwn & Root; Louis Berger Group Inc. of East Orange, N.J. and Parsons Corp. of Pasadena, Calif."

"The total cost of rebuilding Iraq would greatly exceed the amount spent under what American officials call the 'mother contract.'"

"For Bush, Outcome of U.N. Vote Could Have Effects Beyond Iraq," [3.10.03, A1].
"President Bush has just a few days to pull off a diplomatic victory at the United Nations or decide to go it alone in a war against Iraq that could have consequences reaching far beyond the showdown with Saddam Hussein... In the long run, a decision to fight without the U.N.'s blessing could undermine British Prime Minister Tony Blair at home and make it harder for America to rely on U.N. in the North Korean nuclear crisis [see illustration]."

"U.S.-Europe Battle on Iraq Heats Up: France, Germany, Russia To Block U.N. Resolution, But War Plans Advance," [3.6.03, A3].
"Although three European nations said yesterday they will fight to oppose an invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration continued marching toward war... And although the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Russia, meeting in Paris, said that they will block passage of a United Nations resolution authorizing war, President Bush's spokesman pointedly observed that the word 'veto' never came up [see illustration]."

"Putin Tests Limits of U.S. Partnership: Russians Wary of Iraq War Say Washington Has Done Little to Earn Their Support," [3.4.03, A13].
"After a series of retreats from long-cherished foreign-policy positions, Russian President Vladimir Putin is digging in his heels over Iraq. His refusal so far to back U.S. military action shows the growing influence of advisors who say Russia has gotten little in return for cozying up to the Bush administration."

"Since taking office in 2000, Mr. Putin has made partnership with the U.S. a priority, frequently bucking a foreign-policy and military establishment still infused with Cold War wariness of American intentions. He has endorsed a U.S. military presence in former Soviet republics in Central Asia, accepted Washington's decision to pull out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, acquiesced in NATO's proposed expansion into former Soviet territory in the Baltics and given strong support to Washington's global campaign against terrorism."

"On Iraq, though, Mr. Putin has resisted American pressure. After talks in the Kremlin last week with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, Mr. Putin said any United Nations resolution authorizing an attack on Iraq was unacceptable."

"'Putin has been under enormous pressure from his entourage,' to resist a U.S. attack on Iraq, said Andrei Piontkovsky, and independent analyst in Moscow. 'Most of the foreign-policy staff has been against any cooperation with Americans from the beginning. And now they see this as a golden opportunity to modify the situation.'"

"Most influencial have been Russia's Soviet-era diplomats and military advisors, who continue to hold government posts. Evgeny Primakov, former head of the Soviet spy service and now a special envoy for the Kremlin, flew to Baghdad last week where he reportedly tried to persuade Mr. Hussein to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors. The trip mirrored a 1990 flight by Mr. Primakov to Baghdad, in which he met with Mr. Hussein and tried to stave of a U.S. attack on Iraq the following year. Neither diplomatic gambit was much appreciated by the U.S.: Last week a top Bush administration official called Mr. Primakov a 'pain in the neck.'"

"Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov has also grown more vocal. Over the weekend he lobbied via telephone foreign ministers from seven temporary members of the U.N. Security Council. Mr. Ivanov 'confirmed Russia's immutable position in favor of achieving an Iraqi settlement through exclusively peaceful, political and diplomatic means,' the Foreign Ministry said in a statement."

"Debate on Iraq Brings New Split To Arab League: Razon-Sharp Words Mean Old Politesse May Be Dead; New Block in the Future?" [3.4.03, A13].
"The looming U.S.-led war on Iraq has brought tensions between Persian Gulf mnarchies and the rest of the Arab world into sharp relief, destroying any pretense of consensus in the Arab League and raising the possibility of new security alliances in the region."

"While all Arab nations say they would rather avoid war, the six oil-rich Gulf monarchies host American troops that, one way or another, would take part in an Iraqi campaign. In the poorer Arab states outside the Gulf, only Jordan is expected to offer such help; instead, countries such as Syria, Libya and Yemen want the Arab League to stand shoulder to shoulder with Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein."

"Egypt, which traditionally has exercised its role as a regional leader through the Cairo-based Arab League, has seen the organization descend into unprecedented acrimony in recent weeks. First, Kuwait threw a diplomatic fit over the league's foreign ministers' statement that urged Arab states not to help in an invasion of Iraq. Then, at a televised league summit in Egypt over the weekend that was supposed to showcase Arab unity, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi accused Saudi Arabia of turning the Arabian peninsula into an 'American protectorate.' An outraged Crown Prince Abdullah snapped back, 'You are a liar, and your grave awaits you.'"

"'What is new is that these radical differences have reached the surface,' says Hala Mustafa, head of the political department of the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, an influencial Cairo think tank. 'There are difference concerns, different circumstances, different types of relationships with the U.S.'"

"Wanted Men: In Iraq, Saddam Isn't the Only One U.S. Is Targeting: 'Regime Change' Plan Extends To Inner Circle, Including Sons and Longtime Aides: The 'Filthy 40' at the Top," [3.4.03, A1].
"If U.S. soldiers invade Iraq, they won't be gunning only for Saddam Hussein. 'Chemical Ali' will be in their sights, too. That's what opposition groups call Ali Hassan Majid, a cousin of the Iraqi leader. U.S. investigators believe Mr. Majid was the architect of a 1988 gas attack against northern Kurds and the man who personally executed a pair of Mr. Hussein's son-in-law after they defected, then returned to Iraq. He apparently has an inkling that he's a wanted man: In January, he abruptly canceled a trip to Egypy and Jordan when an American-backed war-crimes group demanded his arrest."

"President Bush's goal of 'regime change' in Iraq means far more than simply getting the top man. It will mean removing from power a much wider circle, perhaps as many as 50 people, mostly related by blood or marriage. Topping the list will be a group the State Department calls the 'dirty dozen,' including his two sons (though not his three daughters), several of his brothers and people from his tribe,al Bu Nasser."

"Cutting off the top of the Iraqi government will be a delicate dance, however. Thirty-five years of rule by Mr. Hussein's Baath Party have woven his sympathizers deep into Iraq's social fabric, and ripping them out could hurt reconstruction efforts and bring the country's infrastructure to a halt. But leaving too many of them in place could invite Iraqis to settle personal grudges against them, leading to widespread vigilantism is a postwar Iraq."

"Pentagon Plans for Iraqi POWs: Military Police Brigade Could Possess as Many as 270,000 Troops," [3.4.03, A4].
"The U.S. Army's Second Armored Cavalry Regiment stormed into Iraq in the first land thrust of Desert Storm 12 years ago to seek and battle the elite Republican Guard. Within a day, it had another job: tending to hundreds of surrendered Iraqi soldiers. 'It was a huge distraction,' said John Hillen, a cavalry officer at the time, who at one point had to backtrack with 30 Iraqi soldiers piled onto his Bradley Fighting Vehicle [see photo]."

"If the U.S. makes good on its threat to attack Iraq again, some defense planners worry that a much larger wave of Iraqi prisoners of war could bog down U.S. forces. How the U.S. responds could determine not just the success of the battle, but of its aftermath: Handling POWs smoothly could help to minimize destabilizing hostility toward the U.S. and ease the transition to civilian rule under a new government."

"The current, grander aim would be to occupy Iraq and overthrow President Saddam Hussein. That is likely to create many more POWs among Iraq's armed forces, which number well more than 400,000 men -- not counting the huge, ill-trained militia units created in recent years. Pentagon estimates the likely number of POWs to be from 135,000 to 270,000."

"Beyong the numbers, the logistics will be more daunting this time around. In Desert Storm, American troops surged into southern Iraq in a giant armored cavalry charge, giving soldiers backups to handle the flood of Iraqi prisoners. Now, American soldiers will be more spread out, with solo units striking to seize air bases and important military assets in regions scattered across a country the size of California. Without large numbers of troops behind them, those soldiers may have to choose between fighting and holding prisoners."

"How the U.S. Plans to Keep Israel on Sidelines of Iraq War: Jerusalem Will Get Live View Of Battlefield, Early Jump On Any Incoming Scuds," [3.3.03, A1].
"A Nightmare Scenario: It's a nightmare scenario, so troubling that U.S. planners are working feverishly to head it off: In a war with Iraq, Saddam Hussein targets Israel, this time with chemical or biological weapons. Israel lashes back. Friendly Arab governments immediately face violent anti-American demonstrations, while inside Iraq Mr. Hussein is suddenly lionized for standing up to the 'Zionist-American invaders.'"

"If Israel's response is harsh enough, even European leaders, already doubtful about the war and fearful it will spread, demand a halt to the fighting [see map]."

"Intent on preventing that, the Bush administration is going to unprecedented lengths to protect Israel and keep it out of the fight. Without public notice, U.S. officials have arranged to give Israel military leaders access to at least part of the Pentagon's classified communications network so they can monitor the war in real time. They've also quietly delivered to Israel a truck-size early-warning system that downloads data on missile launches directly from U.S. military satellites, which is then instantly relayed to Israel's Arrow missile-defense system. The steps aim to safeguard the Israelis and reassure them there will be no surprises if they wait on the sidelines."

"Expatriate Iraqis Say Oil Fields Should Be Opened: U.S.-Backed Panel's Embrace Of Investment Isn't Surprise, But It Gives Hope to Firms," [3.3.03, A15].
"A State Department-sponsored panel of expatriate Iraqi oil experts is recommending opening the country's vast fields to foreign investment should U.S. military action topple Saddam Hussein and provide political stability in the country."

"The group's public embrace of outside investment -- while not surprising given its U.S. backing -- is nonetheless an encouraging development for international oil companies, many of which are eager to tap Iraq's fields. Independent Iraqi opposition groups have sent similar signals in recent months, but the State Department-backed group, one of a handful drafting recommendations for Iraqi reconstruction more generally, includes a number of oil experts and former technocrats who could end up playing key roles in a post-Hussein oil bureaucracy."

"...A number of U.S. agencies have been informally consulting oil companies, field-service firms, well-fire specialists and construction companies to plan oil-field contingencies during military action, according to U.S. officials and company executives.

"Spain's Aznar Tells Bush: Allies Need Political Cover, Not Rumsfeld," [2.27.03, A1].
"Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, one of America's staunchest allies on the United Nations Security Council, said in an interview that he has urged President Bush to help European leaders withstand the mounting political pressures they face over possible war with Iraq, including muzzling Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Mr. Aznar, who met with Mr. Bush over the weekend in Crawford, Texas, said: 'I did tell the president that we need a lot of [Secretary of State Colin] Powell and not much of Rumsfeld.' who has become a lightning rod for growing European opposition to the U.S. position against Baghdad. Recent comments by Mr. Rumsfeld, such as his comparing Germany with Libya and Cuba over Bonn's approach to Saddam Hussein, have sparked particular criticism."

"'My ear is burning,' Mr. Aznar said, 'It's a matter of talking, talking, talking. Churchill said he won the war by talking. Maybe we can win this peace by talking as well,' he said."

"'Politially, this is the most complicated time for us since we have been in government,' said Mr. Aznar. His opposition in parliament accuses him of being President Bush's 'ranch hand' and for underestimating the threats of a possible war in the Mideast. Opinion polls show that about 80% of Spaniards currently oppose a war, even with backing from the U.N..."

"U.S. Has Many Friends Seeking Aid in Mideast," [2.21.03, A8].
"As negotiations between the U.S. and Turkey, over a multibillion- dollar aid package appeared near collapse, other countries in the region have begun to push for increased U.S. aid that could top $10 billion this year alone. Any financial assistance to Iraq's neighbors would be added to the huge cost of a war -- estimated at from $6 billion to $9 billion a month -- none of which is now accounted for within President Bush's budget requests to Congress for 2003 and 2004."

"Israel, in talks with U.S. officials yesterday, hashed out details of a request for an additional $4 billion in direct aid and $8 billion in loan guarantees to help an economy battered by the 28-month Palestinian uprising."

"Egypt estimates that a war in Iraq could cost the economy from $5 billion to $8 billion, including lost investment, slumping tourism and skyrocketing insurance rates on cargo traveling through teh Suez Canal."

"Jordan, meanwhile, estimates that an Iraq war could cost the kingdom as much as $1.8 billion this year alone.

"Spain's Aznar Risks Backing Bush," [2.21.03, A8].
"More than 1.5 million people took to the streets last weekend to protest Madrid's support of U.S. policy on Iraq and Mr. Aznar's ratings in opinion polls have sunk to an all-time low, three months before key local elections."

"Mr. Aznar is suffering for that friendship [with Bush], and his political woes reflect the difficulties that other U.S. allies are facing by supporting the Bush-leg anti-Iraq campaign. Leaders in Britain, Turkey, Italy and Poland have risked the wrath of their voters by backing Mr. Bush in his tough stand against Baghdad."

"Rift Over Iraq Haunts Meeting Of G-7 Ministers," [2.20.03].
"The political rift between Europe and the U.S. over a possible war with Iraq makes it unlikely that finance ministers will be able to devise a coordinated plan to deal with the consequences of military conflict."

"The prospects of a new Persian Gulf war will overshadow the meeting this weekend in Paris of finance ministers from the Group of Seven largest industrial powers [U.S., Canada, Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Japan]. The gathering was previously scheduled and had been expected to focus on counterterrorism efforts, but is quickly expected to move to a discussion of how a war might affect oil proceeds and general economic well-being."

"NATO Divisions Could Reappear Over Afghanistan: U.S.-Backed Plan to Make Alliance Chief Peacekeeper Raises Concerns in France," [2.26.03, A14].
"Just days after NATO resolved an internal battle over assisting Turkey in the event of an Iraq war, the alliance appears poised for another dispute. France, which led the resistance to North Atlantic Treaty Organization plans to protect Turkey, is now raising doubts about allowing NATO to take control of the international peacekeeping force in Afghanistan... France is concerned that NATO will be plunged into a protracted and difficult mission in Afghanistan. For Paris, 'a NATO-led operation would be a difficult choice,' said an alliance official familiar with the French position. 'France doesn't want to send a signal that NATO will stay there forever.'"

"Paris thinks a NATO commitment to Afghanistan will place a burden on the French troops already stretched among the Balkans, the Ivory Coast and Kabul. In addition, it doesn't believe that NATO's core mission of defending its members justifies running the security force in remote parts of Afghanistan, since vast swaths of the country remain in the hands of feuding warlords."

"Head of NATO Admits Standoff Has Hurt Alliance," [2.19.03, A12].
"NATO's secretary general concedes that the alliance's protracted stalemate over Iraq and Turkey -- resolved just this weekend following an end-run around France -- has called into question the organization's relevance."

" 'Damage has been done.' George Robertson said in an interview at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's headquarters on the edge of Brussels. 'Damage has been done to some extent to our credibility, to relations between the United States and the other countries.' "

"Political Dilemma Closes In On Blair: U.K. Leader Argues in Line With U.S. Stance on Iraq, But British Public Disagrees," [2.18.03, A20].
"As antiwar protests grow louder and a United Nations consensus on Iraq more elusive, the interests of Britain and the U.S. may be diverging."

"British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has long been more wedded than U.S. President Bush to a U.N.-backed solution, is reviewing his options after Saturday's huge antiwar march in London and Friday's report by U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix. Mr. Blix's findings strengthened the hand of France, Germany and other nations that want much more time to try to disarm Iraq by peaceful means. His report is likely to make it much harder for the U.S. and Britain to get backing from the U.N. in the near future for a war against Iraq."

" 'This is make or break for Blair as a world leader,' said Bob Worcester, head of the MORI polling agency in London... Anthony King, professor of government at the University of Essex [says], 'If Mr. Blair goes to war without a U.N. mandate, I can imagine rioting in the streets.' "

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